A century-long study in the Oregon Cascades may cause scientists to revise the textbook on how forests grow and die, accumulate biomass and store carbon.
In a new analysis of forest succession in three Douglas-fir stands in the Willamette National Forest, two Oregon State University scientists report that biomass – a measure of tree volume – has been steadily accumulating for 150 years. In the long term, such a trend is not sustainable, they said, and if these stands behave in a manner similar to others in the Cascades, trees will begin to die from causes such as insect outbreaks, windstorms or fire. “Mortality will occur in the future,” said Mark Harmon, professor and Richardson Chair in Forest Science at OSU. “It just hasn’t arrived.”
In 1910, pioneering forest scientist Thornton T. Munger established the research plots in stands that had, by that time, been recovering from a wildfire for about 50 years. Growth and mortality were measured in the plots every five years until 1955 and again starting in 1992.
Scientists generally treat mortality as a phenomenon that occurs at an average rate over many years, said Harmon. However, results from these stands show that mortality can proceed slowly for many years and then increase rapidly in sudden pulses.
Harmon and Rob Pabst, forestry research assistant at OSU, published their findings recently in the Journal of Vegetation Science. “The way we have thought about mortality is wrong,” said Harmon, who is conducting long-term monitoring at 10 stands in the Cascades. “When we started measuring mortality, our goal was to come up with a long-term average, but it became clear that that’s misleading because its very nature is variable.”